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    Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

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    dleet
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    Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by dleet on Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:17 am

    Another factor in measuring intelligence is  the Dunning–Kruger effect. It is a http://cognitivebiases.com/the-dunning%e2%80%93kruger-effect/a cognitive bias in which an unskilled person makes poor decisions and arrives at erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to realize their mistakes. The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. This leads to the perverse situation in which less competent people rate their own ability higher than more competent people. It also explains why actual competence may weaken self-confidence: because competent individuals falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding.

    “Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.”

    The Dunning–Kruger effect was put forward by Justin Kruger and David Dunning. Similar notions have been expressed–albeit less scientifically–for some time. Dunning and Kruger themselves quote Charles Darwin (“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge”) and Bertrand Russell (“One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.”). The Dunning-Kruger effect is not, however, concerned narrowly with high-order cognitive skills (much less their application in the political realm during a particular era, which is what Russell was talking about.) Nor is it specifically limited to the observation that ignorance of a topic is conducive to overconfident assertions about it, which is what Darwin was saying. Indeed, Dunning et al. cite a study saying that 94% of college professors rank their work as “above average” (relative to their peers), to underscore that the highly intelligent and informed are hardly exempt. Rather, the effect is about paradoxical defects in perception of skill, in oneself and others, regardless of the particular skill and its intellectual demands, whether it is chess, playing golf or driving a car.(unquote) I knew a percent of Americans were really stupid, but I had no idea an ignorant fascist puppet could get this far. I never saw the spectacles coming and the cheering crowds of people the majority of whom think Obama is a Kenyan Muslim. Heavens Gate, and Jim Jones cults started out as rational too.

    On international math competition, Americans did kind of poorly, but Americans also rated themselves the highest of any other country and were off the most in their assessments of personal ability.


    Last edited by Ren's View on Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:30 pm; edited 4 times in total (Reason for editing : spelling)
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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by Ren's View on Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:52 am

    That in no way addresses the reason's why I rebel against measuring a person's supposed intelligence.
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    Discussing Expectation post

    Post by dleet on Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:22 pm

    Trump Truths I never knew Hillary has the aids virus that Bill contracted from Magic Johnson. Kind of disheartening though. 60% think Obama is a Kenyan Muslim, and others think the rubbish above, but climate science is nonsense. Pitiful and pathetic barely covers the sorry state of too much of America's general intellect.
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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by Ren's View on Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:28 pm

    I'm pretty sure 99.9999% of American's didn't know Bill had Aids either.
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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by MilesD3 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:17 am

    Hey Ren.
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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by Ren's View on Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:19 pm

    Hey Wobbe, good to see you!  Is it OK if I use Wobbe or do you prefer Miles?
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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by MilesD3 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:21 pm

    I don't mind either way. So far, 6 members?
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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by Ren's View on Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:23 pm

    Yeah, just got it up and running, haven't really tried to get the word out yet.  I'm hoping for some help through networking.  I don't do self promotion very well.... being as I'm an introvert.
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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by Ren's View on Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:26 pm

    dleet is douglaslee from Thom's, he was there with the rest of us back in the day, if you don't recall.  He's done a bang up job of helping get this going.  Great help in getting some topics started. 

    Feel free to start up anything that comes to mind, jump in and say whatever about what we've already begun.

    Suggestions?  Wide open here.
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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by MilesD3 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:23 pm

    Hey Doug, I remember. How are you doing, these them days?
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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by Ren's View on Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:51 pm

    So Wobbe, anything interesting going on there in your country?

    Sorry I haven't been keeping up. I shouldn't have to ask.

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    What if you take gender into account?

    Post by Bev on Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:14 pm

    It strikes me that most men seem more confident that they are correct when they say something than women.  Women are sometimes criticized for not speaking with authority.  Often we women know that we don't know everything and tend to qualify what we say.  I wonder if the studies quoted in this post have taken gender into account.  For example the 95% of professors who think they are above average: I suspect that they were all men. Not sure though.... Just sayin
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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

    Post by Ren's View on Wed Oct 12, 2016 2:51 pm

    Bev wrote:It strikes me that most men seem more confident that they are correct when they say something than women.  Women are sometimes criticized for not speaking with authority.  Often we women know that we don't know everything and tend to qualify what we say.  I wonder if the studies quoted in this post have taken gender into account.  For example the 95% of professors who think they are above average: I suspect that they were all men. Not sure though.... Just sayin

    Hi, Bev!  And thanks.  We need all the help we can get. 

    Not sure about much either. Everything I write comes pre qualified as my view.

    I think very possibly the point Doug was offering, especially if the study was 95% male professors, was more in line with showing that men may be more confidently stupid than confidently correct.  I think it's along the lines of Men Explain Things to Me by Rebecca Solnit.

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    Re: Discussing Locked Expectations and Guidelines post

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